The seabird meta-population viability model (mPVA) projects population trends and extinction risk for 102 seabird species under different conservation scenarios. It uses a stage-structured matrix model accounting for breeding island features, dispersal, and spatial distribution. Data sources include published and grey literature and expert input from over 500 contributors. Impacts of invasive species were modeled using Bayesian methods, linking them to seabird vital rates.

The model incorporates survival, environmental and demographic stochasticity, density dependence, and uncertainty. It allows managers to assess outcomes of conservation strategies such as invasive species removal, translocation, and reducing at-sea mortality, comparing them against baseline (no-intervention) projections to guide seabird recovery efforts.